Pourquoi les États-Unis Ne Peuvent Pas Briser le Monopole Chinois sur les Terres Rares

La pandémie globale a exposé la dépendance absolue des US et du monde vis-à-vis de la Chine pour équipements critiques et matières premières. C'est particulièrement le cas pour l'approvisionnement en éléments de terres rares (ETR/REEs), requis dans nombreux produits commerciaux et systèmes défense. Risques de contrôle serré Chine sur ETR bien documentés, et COVID-19 a seulement souligné à nouveau.

Malheureusement, structures marché actuelles, basées sur coût production le plus bas, ne peuvent pas surmonter dominance Chine ETR cause stratégie nationale, intégration verticale et subventions industrie.

ETR = 17 éléments groupe 3 tableau périodique. Chine produit ~132 000 tonnes métriques/an, réserves estimées ~44 millions MT. US : ~26 000 et 1,4 million MT respectivement. ETR widely used nombreux produits high-tech commerciaux : smartphones, TVs, batteries, dispositifs médicaux, armement défense.

Politique industrielle Chine prioritized support/développement industrie terres rares comme initiative économique/sécurité nationale. Incluait trois aims : contrôler supply chain ETR, capturer propriété intellectuelle occidentale, embed ses matériaux dans systèmes commerciaux/défense US. Entreprises comme General Electric, Northrup Grumman, Boeing lack capability traiter oxydes ETR en composants utilisables. Actuellement, presque tous ETR minés hors Chine shipped there pour processing en métaux haute valeur, aimants, alliages.

Stratégie nationale Chine provided small-business subsidies pour vertically integrate high-tech supply chain. Belt and Road Initiative further advanced that strategy by acquiring foreign assets loan defaults, purchasing in-country ETR mines offset country export quotas, supporting local tech, targeting IP via collaboration foreign academia/research institutions.

Années 1980 virent drastic reduction ETR mining US. Chine acquired tech General Motors allowing move low-end material supplier → producer aimants, alliages, métaux. Processus, eliminated competition et dominated world supply. US essentially ceded capability/control to China, through lack coherent defense/admin policy recognizing ETRs critical to economy/national security. Pas jusqu'à 2019 que US Department of Commerce outlined six key areas federal strategy ensuring domestic supply critical materials.

Through lack sustained/aggressive policy toward domestic development, US ignored potential collaborative public-private partnership model could restore country's leadership ETR sourcing/fabrication.

En plus bas coûts main-d'œuvre, Chine achieved effective price controls by subsidizing small-market ETR orgs, manipulating local/world events via restrictions exports Japan, idling domestic plants reduce over-supply, securing overseas sources via acquisitions, Belt and Road, political influencing. With near-monopoly ETR sourcing et labor costs, Chine current pricing posture makes nearly invincible — unless US adopts different way thinking.

Croyance prevailing US : private investment et opening new domestic mines will solve nation's resource problem. Not the case for reasons :

• Nouvelle material availability → lowering prices → affect mine operations, most drastically advanced economies, due to large initial investments et higher operating costs. Bankruptcy US mining company Molycorp = prime example. ETR-producing mines take average >5 years fully operational. By that time, initiative might no longer be viable, due to price decreases new capacity, global pricing pressures, autres raisons. Only if market prices remain above entry price will new mining operations be sustainable. However, further processing/fabrication ore into value-added alloys/metals will require additional plant installations higher cost. Obvious this model failed since 1980s.
• China can manipulate new capacity by further lowering prices et increasing supply, temporarily absorbing losses to eliminate new for-profit companies. Highly effective reducing ETR exports 2010, explicitly warned US will cut off ETR supplies countermeasure ongoing trade dispute.
• ETR ores continue shipped to China pour processing into value-added materials, alloys, finished goods. Solely due to low-cost, market-efficiency philosophy followed blindly by US at expense own national interest. While China gains strategically/financially controlling value-added ETR supply chain, US continues forgo potential national strategic lever sticking to old models.
• China continues dominate global supplies ETR, force value-added domestic manufacturing, capture IP in return allowing foreign businesses into its markets. 2017, enacted cybersecurity law requiring network operators store select data within China, allow Chinese authorities spot-checks companies' network operations. Law raised concerns foreign businesses over tighter data controls, increased risk IP theft, forced switching Chinese-made equipment.

Attempting to wrestle ETR supplies from China solely by opening new standalone mines will only further erode United States' economic and national security. Public-private partnership supply-chain model needed to break this critical dependency.

(Note : Ceci est premier article série multi-part.)

Shubho Chatterjee est executive digital transformation, strategy, technology et operations.